China has recently intensified its diplomatic and strategic initiatives in South Asia, marked by Nepal’s agreement to implement the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Beijing’s outreach to Islamist political parties in Bangladesh. These developments have significant geopolitical implications, particularly concerning India’s regional influence.
Nepal’s Commitment to the Belt and Road Initiative
On December 4, 2024, Nepal and China signed a framework agreement to advance the BRI, a global development strategy initiated by China to enhance regional connectivity and economic integration. This agreement comes seven years after the initial BRI pact in 2017, which had seen little progress due to the absence of a detailed cooperation framework and political consensus within Nepal.
The new framework aims to facilitate collaboration on infrastructure projects, including road upgrades and transportation corridors, and outlines financing modalities. Nepal’s Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli’s visit to Beijing, his first foreign trip since taking office in July 2024, underscores Kathmandu’s intent to strengthen economic ties with China and reduce its dependence on India, which currently accounts for two-thirds of Nepal’s international trade.
China’s Engagement with Bangladesh’s Islamist Parties
In a parallel development, China has extended diplomatic overtures to Islamist political parties in Bangladesh. A 14-member delegation, including leaders from Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, visited China at the invitation of the Communist Party of China (CPC). This engagement is perceived as Beijing’s strategy to establish connections with potential power centers in Bangladesh, especially in the context of the anticipated political transition following the tenure of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
Analysts suggest that China’s outreach to these groups, some of which have historically held anti-India sentiments, could be an attempt to expand its influence in Bangladesh’s political landscape. This move aligns with China’s broader objective to strengthen its presence in South Asia, potentially at the expense of India’s traditional influence in the region.
Implications for India
China’s recent engagements in Nepal and Bangladesh present strategic challenges for India:
- Geopolitical Influence: China’s deepening ties with Nepal through the BRI and its outreach to Bangladesh’s Islamist parties could diminish India’s traditional influence in these neighboring countries.
- Security Concerns: The involvement of Islamist groups in Bangladesh, some with anti-India orientations, raises concerns about regional security dynamics and the potential for increased anti-India activities.
- Economic Competition: China’s investment in Nepal’s infrastructure under the BRI could shift trade routes and economic dependencies, impacting India’s economic interests in the region.
Conclusion
China’s strategic initiatives in Nepal and Bangladesh signify a concerted effort to expand its influence in South Asia. For India, these developments necessitate a reassessment of its diplomatic and strategic approaches to maintain its regional standing and address emerging security and economic challenges.
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